The value of price stability

Stable prices are crucially important for an economy. Substantial price fluctuations over longer periods of time lead to considerable uncertainty among companies and households, as well as a redistribution of wealth and income. This affects the level of prosperity for everyone. The SNB explains what it understands by price stability, and why it’s at the top of its list of priorities.

Picture: Keystone

How the SNB influences prices


  • Aufmacher 01

    Monetary policy affects prices and the economy through various channels. What follows is a simplified illustration of a complex transmission mechanism.

  • Aufmacher 02

    Let us assume that the inflation forecast predicts excessively high inflation.

  • Aufmacher 03

    The SNB raises the SNB policy rate, thereby pushing up interest on short-term loans.

  • Aufmacher 04

    With time, this in turn raises long-term rates, e.g. for mortgage and corporate loans. The Swiss franc becomes more attractive than other currencies, and appreciates. In other words, the same unit of foreign currency can be purchased for fewer Swiss francs.

  • Aufmacher 05

    Taking out a loan becomes less attractive for households and companies, which in turn reduces demand. Accordingly, companies adjust their production to the lower demand, and economic activity is dampened.

  • Aufmacher 06

    Because demand is lower, the supply of goods is comparatively greater. If demand is lower than supply, it becomes virtually impossible to raise prices. Price stability is assured.

What exactly is meant by price stability?


Prices are regarded as stable when the change in prices for everyday items is barely perceptible from one day to the next. The SNB deems prices in Switzerland to be stable when the overall price level increases by less than 2% per year, and there is no incidence of negative inflation. Inflation or deflation is said to occur only when the general level of prices rises or falls substantially over a sustained period of time. The last 100 years have seen several inflationary phases, but only one conspicuously deflationary phase, namely during the 1930s.

The CPI goods basket in 2019


Der LIK-Warenkorb 2019
Source: SFSO

The SNB monitors changes in the price level using the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI measures changes in the prices of a ‘basket’ of goods and services which the average Swiss household consumes.

Is 100 francs a lot of money?


In the past, 100 francs could buy you a lot more than it can today. And yet now we are better off. This is because our wages have outpaced prices – in other words, the purchasing power of our income has increased.

Our perception of the value of 100 francs depends not just on how much we earn or possess, but also on how much we can purchase. This changes over time: In 1915, for example, 100 francs would buy over 500 kilogrammes of potatoes. Today, the same amount purchases just 40 kilogrammes, because the price of potatoes has increased pretty substantially. Many other goods and services have also become more expensive over the years. Identical items of shopping worth 100 francs today would have cost just 10 francs 100 years ago.

Wage rises outpace price rises

This state of affairs is due to the fact that prices in many economies – including Switzerland – have risen considerably over the last 100 years with a resulting decline in the value of money. However, this does not mean that we can afford less than we could 100 years ago, since, as the prices for things like food, clothing, accommodation and transport have risen, so too have wages.

Higher purchasing power

In fact, generally speaking, wage growth has significantly outpaced price rises – which is why today we are able to afford far more and better products than consumers 100 years ago. This period has consequently seen substantial changes to both our needs and what is on offer. We are thus generally far better off today than we were in the past.

Working time required to buy these products

Source: Avenir Suisse

When price stability begins to falter


Excessive inflation and deflation are both extremely harmful. While an economy can absorb short-term deviations from price stability, sizeable and sustained fluctuations – whether up or down – are highly damaging. A substantial and unexpected rise in inflation leads to considerable uncertainty among companies and households, as well as a redistribution of wealth and income. As the value of money declines, consumers can afford less (i.e. their purchasing power is eroded) since wages and pensions are not always – or fully – adjusted for inflation, and then only with a time lag. Sustained deflation also has harmful consequences, since it has deleterious effects on economic performance.

The SNB ensures stable prices

Die Nationalbank sorgt für stabile Preise

The SNB’s mandate


The SNB’s mandate is to ensure price stability in Switzerland. In so doing, it must also take due account of economic developments.
Das Mandat der Nationalbank

The Constitution requires the SNB to pursue a monetary policy that serves the interests of the country as a whole. The National Bank Act describes this requirement in detail. It obliges the SNB to ensure price stability (i.e. to prevent both inflation and deflation), and in so doing to take due account of the economy’s development.

Clear hierarchy of objectives

The law stipulates a clear hierarchy of objectives: the highest priority is accorded to ensuring price stability, while taking due account of economic developments occupies second place. These two objectives, however, go hand in glove. Of course the Swiss economy is also materially affected by global economic events, which the SNB cannot influence.

Limited influence

However, exactly controlling the price level and economic developments is beyond the power of the SNB and its monetary policy. Furthermore, the impact of monetary policy measures is initially mainly felt in the business cycle; only later does it feed through to prices. Monetary policy cannot, by itself, have a sustained influence on economic development and ensure a higher rate of growth. In the long term, monetary policy has no influence on economic development at all. But the maintenance of price stability does ensure favourable economic conditions. The power of monetary policy to influence economic activity is thus limited, and should not be overestimated.

Picture: Keystone

How the SNB fulfils its mandate


If its inflation forecast indicates that prices will rise by more than 2% per year, the SNB increases the interest rate and restricts the supply of money and credit to the economy (and vice versa). This is how the SNB carries out its mandate.

Inflationsprognose

Transmission mechanism


Der Transmissionsmechanismus

The SNB’s monetary policy affects the economy in various ways. The sequence of events that changes in monetary policy trigger is known as the transmission mechanism. Monetary policy influences prices and economic activity via interest and exchange rates.

Monetary policy strategy


The monetary policy strategy outlines how, and with which instruments, the SNB achieves its objectives. It consists of three elements. First, on introducing this strategy, the SNB defined its mandate to ensure price stability in specific terms, namely that the general price level should not increase by more than 2% per year. Second, each quarter the SNB prepares an inflation forecast for the next three years. For this, it uses the SNB policy rate, which remains unchanged over the entire period. Based on this forecast, the SNB decides whether inflation is too high or low, or whether it falls within the realm of price stability. Third, based on this assessment, the SNB makes its interest rate decision, namely whether to raise or lower the SNB policy rate, or leave it unchanged.

The monetary policy assessment


Each quarter, the SNB conducts a monetary policy assessment which culminates in an interest rate decision, which it communicates to the public. Depending on circumstances, it may also take monetary policy measures at any time between these quarterly assessments.

The SNB news conference of December 2015

The SNB conducts an in-depth monetary policy assessment in March, June, September and December. These assessments comprise an analysis of the economic situation in Switzerland and abroad, and the preparation of forecasts for future developments. Based on these assessments, the Governing Board makes its monetary policy decision. Should circumstances so require, the SNB may also take monetary policy measures at any time between these quarterly assessments – for example the introduction of the minimum exchange rate against the euro on 6 September 2011, and its discontinuation on 15 January 2015.

Informing the public

The SNB communicates monetary policy decisions through press releases. Furthermore, following the monetary policy assessments of June and December, it holds news conferences for journalists. News conferences are also held on an ad hoc basis as necessary.

Mainly (but not only) interest rate decisions

Monetary policy decisions usually involve interest rate decisions, but not always – where necessary, the SNB also takes other monetary policy measures, e.g. the minimum exchange rate. While managing the interest rate level is generally enough to ensure price stability, in a small open economy like Switzerland’s, another major and fast-acting driver of prices is the exchange rate. Interest and exchange rates together therefore determine the monetary conditions of the economy. Through its monetary policy decisions, the SNB makes certain that these two elements are kept in check and that price stability is ensured.

Exceptional times for monetary policy


In monetary policy terms, we have been living through exceptional times for some years now. The SNB has been compelled to resort to unconventional monetary policy measures, for example the introduction of the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. Following the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate on 15 January 2015, interest rate policy is again at the fore, but a return to normal is still a long way off. Concurrently with the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate, the SNB lowered the interest rate further into negative territory. This has made investments in Swiss francs less attractive, thereby helping to weaken the currency over time. Furthermore, the SNB remains active on the foreign exchange market and will intervene as necessary.